Looking into the crystal ball, Kansas' Next Ten Birds.

Part of the fun in birding is trying to predict what is going to show up where. While it is often guessing as much as actual prediction, you can be surprisingly accurate, and it's fun when you are actually correct. I've had a Top Ten Next-up Birds for Kansas list, (really more of a top thirty next birds, I went way out) for a while, and have been lucky enough to actually have a few of my predictions come true. I convinced Andrew to come up with a list of his own, so that we could post them here for all to see.


So, without further ado, here are our predictions for the next ten birds to be added to the Kansas state list. You may notice that there are actually thirteen species in the first list, due to my including my successful predictions (in bold) as well.

1. Eurasian Tree Sparrow. March 19, 2016. Doniphan Co. Pending acceptance
 

2. Pacific Wren. Dec 20, 2014 Scott Co. Accepted by the KBRC

3.Slaty-backed Gull. A  fairly regular vagrant into the interior of the continent.

4.  Pacific-slope Flycatcher. Probably overlooked in western Kansas.

Tropical Kingbird. This one from Costa Rica, not Kansas

5. Tropical/Couch's Kingbird. History of straying

6.  Sharp-tailed Sandpiper. Overdue in my opinion, neighboring states have multiple records.

Sharp-tailed Sandpiper eBird sightings map

 

7.  Common Black Hawk. One recent unconfirmed report. Likely to be found in extreme south-west Kansas but could show up anywhere.

8. Blue-throated Hummingbird. Several reports already, only a matter of time for a confirmed one. 

9.  Black Swift. Swifts are highly migratory and this species breeds within a few hundred miles.

  

10. Grace's Warbler. One unaccepted report already, I think?

  

11. Black-chinned Sparrow. Breeds not far away in north-east Arizona. Morton County somewhere?  

12. Purple Sandpiper. December 23, 2015. Russell Co. Accepted by the KBRC

13. Acorn Woodpecker. Breeds within a couple hundred miles. 

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And here is Andrews list. We agreed on a lot of species, but he has some likely ones I hadn't thought of. It will be interesting to see who is more accurate in the long run.

1. Slaty-backed Gull

Slaty-backed Gull eBird sightings map

2. Bar-tailed Godwit

3. Black-chinned Sparrow

4. Zone-tailed Hawk

5. Black-tailed Gull

6. Sharp-tailed Sandpiper

7. Common Black Hawk

8. Blue-throated Hummingbird

9. Golden-crowned Woodpecker

10. Lawrence's Goldfinch



Will any of these actually be the next on the list? It's impossible to say, but I like to think that at least a couple of these predictions will come true. What do you think the next first state record will be? Leave you guesses in the comments below and we will see what shows up!

Joseph